James Hasik

On Rotorcraft: Experience of the current war suggests strong future demand for combat helicopters—with precision standoff weapons.

I have been considering the role of rotorcraft in modern warfare, and particularly in the conduct of the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian War. For technologists, industrialists, and investors, I offer three points:

• Loitering above a battlefield, or on an airfield, is so dangerous that most military aviation must eventually become fleeting and field-independent.
• Rotary- and fixed-wing combat aircraft are somewhat fungible, as both attack and scout machines.
• The experience of the Russo-Ukrainian War suggests future demand for rotorcraft with standoff precision weapons. Industry needs battlefield demonstrations and a long-term marketing effort to encourage acceptance of a conclusive shift from fixed- to rotary-wing emphasis in battlefield air support.

I will update this analysis as events warrant. Download my full six-page analysis through the link below:

Download On Rotorcraft 20230526

On Artificial Intelligence: Near-term applications of AI will be militarily valuable, but not revolutionary.

I have four points on the role of artificial intelligence (AI) in modern military affairs, and what investors, industrialists, and technologists can do about it:

• Selective use of AI at present points to broader applications emerging in at least five areas: target recognition, predictive intelligence and operational recommendations, resilience in command and control, increasing the autonomy of robotic systems, and labor-enhancing human-machine teaming.
• Policy and professional angst are indeed restraining progress.
• However, dire predictions that the US is behind may not be serious.
• The big question for everything else in the military is simple: what can AI do for a platform do that it cannot do for a payload? 

I will update this analysis as events warrant. Download my full six-page analysis through the link below:

Download On Artificial Intelligence 20230522

On the Russo-Ukrainian War: Expect operational success but not war-ending decision from the coming Spring Offensive.

I have four points on the conduct of the Russo-Ukrainian War:

• The balance in materiel has shifted decisively towards the Ukrainians, though their shortage of personnel reinforces their strategic choice for a campaign of mechanized maneuver.
• Politics, misperceptions, and strategic mismatch will pin the Russians in place as the Ukrainians launch their Spring Offensive.
• The assault will likely be very successful operationally, but unlikely to end the war fully. Much depends on the arrival of long-range British missiles, which could destroy the Kerch Bridge and much of the remaining Russian Black Sea Fleet.
• Technologists, industrialists, and investors should consider the likelihood of a longer war when investing in development and production for real battlefield needs, and the conduct of the war when marketing to those needs.

I will update this analysis as events warrant. Download my full nine-page analysis through the link below:

Download On the Russo-Ukrainian War 20230511

On Contested Logistics: Ukrainian attacks on Russian fuel depots indicate a the need for a revolution in battlefield supply.

I have four points on the challenge of contested logistics in modern warfare, and what technologists, industrialists, and investors can do about it:

• In the ongoing war, the Ukrainians are effectively targeting Russian vulnerabilities in the industrial concentration of fuel and ammunition.
• Expect that logistics on any future, modern battlefield will be very difficult.
• In response, land forces need to distribute those iron mountains of supply into little hills, adopt teleoperation and robotic platooning of existing trucks, and embrace wheeled robotic mules for resupply and casualty evacuation. 
• These are challenging tasks in engineering and marketing, but they require no high science.

I will update this analysis as events warrant. Download my full four-page analysis through the link below:

Download On Contested Logistics 20230505