September has seemed a pivotal month in the conduct of modern warfare, even if we just focus on the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian War. In considering the score of the past two weeks, note that all the Ukrainian work to secure the Black Sea against Russian naval activity has been undertaken without access to a single large ship. The Russians have lost a submarine, but only in port. For many navies, this begs the question, when does a navy actually require surface ships? What radical change would that suggest? In my seven-page note, I analyze that question through the framework of what Elon Musk calls his “algorithm” for breakthrough performance improvement.
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