About

I am a political economist studying innovation, industry, and international security. Since September 2001, I have been advising industries and ministries on their issues of strategy, planning, and policy. My work aims to inform investors, industrialists, technologists, and policy-makers on how to effect, economically, a secure future.

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25 August 2023

On Learning Lessons from the Russo-Ukrainian War: Moving militaries into the 21st Century may require alliances for marketing and manufacturing.

Anonymous opinions about the situation in the Russo-Ukrainian War have been characterizing the military situation as stalemated. I assess that this whisper campaign is more designed to justify political decisions by the Biden Administration than to assess both the tactical situation and the broader technological dynamics of modern warfare. A more honest debate about what is possible and plausible in modern warfare, underway for several years, has been greatly informed by feedback from the front. Many 20th-century military systems are showing obsolescence because 21st-century surveillance and strike systems have been limiting their battlefield potential, inflicting high losses for little countervailing value. This in turn has been exposing the high costs and long production lead-times of the old-and-obvious.

The question for technologists and industrialists is whether the strategists will learn the relevant lessons, and how soon. The 21st century will unfold more slowly than some pundits predict, but more quickly than conservative military sentiments will allow. Fixing that problem will require vigorous marketing, and judicious timing in scaling manufacturing. Corporate alliances between emerging and established firms continue to offer an excellent way to solve that problem, and sometimes as far forward as Ukraine.

My full seven-page analysis is available here: Download On Learning Lessons from the Russo-Ukrainian War 20230825.

Posted at 13:46 |

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