Better Three Than One, Usually
“I strongly suspect that GDLS [General Dynamics Land Systems] has done a great job of tailoring a solution, developed over time through successes in other programs, for exactly what the US Army wants,” as expressed in roughly 100 detailed and rigid requirements, said George Mason scholar Jim Hasik. But, he said, that doesn’t mean what the Army thinks it wants is the right solution, or that GD will deliver on budget and schedule. “I would prefer that two or three contractors were proceeding to some trials of truth at Aberdeen in some months,” Hasik told me. “I do not single out GDLS; I just expect lower likelihood of success in non-competitive contracting. Any given bid may have problems of which even the bidder does not know.”
In Sydney J. Freedberg Jr., "Bradley Replacement: Army Risks Third Failure in a Row," Breaking Defense, 7 October 2019.
Battery-Powered Stealth Mode
...electric and hybrid-electric vehicles are quieter than conventionally fueled vehicles which is a huge advantage when it comes to stealth. “If people were rolling up in Bradleys… you knew it well in advance,” [Hasik] said. However, if the military can get its electric combat vehicles to sound like “an overgrown Prius… rolling across the battlefield, at least for short distances, you hugely suppress your audible signature.” Another benefit is onboard power. “You can operate power intensive sensors without actually having to light off a diesel engine. You can sit quietly without emitting a great deal of heat that an infrared weapon can hone in on.”.
In Yasmin Tadjdeh, "Army Driving Forward with Electric Vehicle Plans," National Defense, February 2019.
Why you're better off working through local industry
“There are large parts of the world in which ‘military truck’ means commercial truck painted green,” [Hasik] said. That is not the case for many wealthy countries where a military system would be robust and advanced. But “if your armed forces don’t have a whole lot of money, one way to save a bit that doesn’t seem to have an obvious shortcoming is to … trade down to a commercial truck.” Once a country has traded down to a commercial truck there are many more companies that can supply those than the handful of military truck builders in the United States.
U.S.-made systems are often more expensive, he noted. Because of the higher price point, interested countries would likely be wealthy and industrialized and already have their own indigenous vehicle market, he added. “Why would I buy from the Americans? I can buy from somebody locally. It’s not like fighter jets where… there aren’t that many people that make them [so] I better call the Americans.”.
In Yasmin Tadjdeh, "Opportunities Abound for U.S. Military Vehicles," National Defense, February 2019.
Yet more on the brilliance of the feasible
Hasik said the underlying automotive technologies for armored vehicles aren't advancing rapidly, [so] it was prudent for the Marine Corps not to swing for the fences when it comes to capability. "When you're faced with that, it makes a whole lot of sense to bunt—to use a baseball analogy—in your efforts to develop a new weapon system... which is what the Marines have done" with the ACV program.
In Jon Harper, "Marine Corps Taking Low-Risk Approach to Amphibious Combat Vehicle," National Defense, September 2018.
On Section 232 silliness
And as Trudeau repeats whenever interviewed on American television, Canadian aluminum still ends up in U.S. fighter aircraft and its steel is used in American tanks. James Hasik, senior fellow at the Brent Scowcroft Center on International Security at the Atlantic Council, said that nobody he knows in the national security community believes that invocation of the Section 232 national security clause has any substance. “I can’t imagine the circumstances in which a Canadian federal government would try to choke off aluminum supplies to the U.S.,” Hasik said.
Trump to See National Security Threat in Canada Firsthand, in the
Washington Post, 7 June 2018.
On what to watch
James Hasik, a professor at the National Defense University, said he would be keeping a close eye on how the autonomous Sea Hunter vehicle does during ongoing testing. DARPA recently transferred the Sea Hunter, designed to travel thousands of miles over open seas, for months at a time, without a crew member on board, over to the Navy for continued testing. “The economics of that concept are so compelling,” Hasik said. If the concept proves out, it could have “some profound applications for fleet structure, some profound applications for warfighting.”
What to expect from AI, space and other tech over the next 18 months, in
Defense News, 10 May 2018.
On market entry, in the long run
Oshkosh “might wind up with a run of many decades as having been the favorite for military trucks in North America. But it doesn’t mean that they are guaranteed to keep it, because it’s an industry in which entry into the military market segment is not as challenging as it is in other segments”.
Army Moves Forward with New Medium Truck Acquisition in
National Defense, April 2018
More on the brilliance of the feasible
“The Army’s failure to effect greater progress [in armored vehicle programs] may have seemed tragic, but retrospectively, it was almost fated: programs like FCS and GCV were doomed before they were begun. For had the future been more readily foreseen from within the department, technological trajectories like those would have called long ago for more modest investments. The Army’s leadership is just recognizing the art of the possible, and investing accordingly.”
Army Accelerates Armor: Stryker, Trophy, MPF Race To Field in
Breaking Defense, 16 October 2017
On the brilliance of the feasible
“There’s actually no reason to dislike the program today. I haven’t noticed yet any meaningful cost overruns on JLTV. I think with fixed-price contracts — as they have — you’re not going to get them. From what I can tell it is a great deal. It does basically exactly what it’s supposed to do, and at a pretty reasonable price.”
JLTV Program Could Serve as Acquisition Model, in
National Defense magazine, 9 October 2017
On staying out of the way
“In 2014, Russian signals intelligence drones and Russian artillery worked quickly and efficiently to target Ukrainian troops by triangulating their radio emissions. And as the Ukrainians learned, emitting in any pattern that says headquarters will attract lots of cannon and rocket fire.”
Army seeks fixes to vulnerable satellite communications,
in
Space News, 28 September 2017
On dubious vertical integration
Inauguration 2017: Fifteen smart locals on how Donald Trump could change Washington, in Washingtonian magazine, January 2017
Who Killed The Ground Combat Vehicle? The Army's Answer Is Still Vexing, in Inside the Army, 27 February 2015
Joint Vehicle Program Showcases The Tricky Math Of Intellectual Property, in Inside Defense, 25 November 2014
Laissez Les Bons Temps Roullez [on the defense budget before Mardi Gras], in Politico Morning Defense, 25 February 2014
Worrying Too Much About Sustaining the Industrial Base? in Defense Industry Daily, 22 November 2013
BAE Prods Congress For Bradley Funding Unwanted By Army, on Bloomberg, 1 April 2013
BAE Develops Green Fighting Machine for $32 Billion Army Program, on Bloomberg, 15 January 2013
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