About

I am a political economist studying innovation, industry, and international security. Since September 2001, I have been advising industries and ministries on their issues of strategy, planning, and policy. My work aims to inform investors, industrialists, technologists, and policy-makers on how to effect, economically, a secure future.

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31 July 2011

Just how much money is Oshkosh losing on the FMTV contract? And should the customer care?

Here’s the abstract to my Defense-Industrial Research Memorandum #2011-02.

As some—though not I—predicted back in 2009, Oshkosh is indeed today losing money on its contract to supply the US Army with FMTV-type trucks. We use some basic financial statement analysis to estimate just how much, and conclude that it’s a significant sum, but not enough to sink the company. Thus, we maintain our assertion that the Army should not be concerned about the viability of this contractor.

As I’ve covered issues at Oshkosh pretty openly, I’m releasing this issue of the DIRM to the widest audience. As always, I appreciate feedback, particularly in this case on my financial analysis.

http://www.jameshasik.com/dirm2011-02oshkosh-2011-07-31-23-38.pdf

Posted at 23:38 |

Comments

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In Whitehorse, Yukon Territory, en route to Alaska. Have been keeping up with your posts as net connectivity allows. Great stuff as always. Sanity. — Dave

Posted by: Dave Foster | 05 August 2011 at 00:06

New Blog - http://winklerorama.blog.com
James,
I have started my own blog to discuss a few of the most pertinent matter that involve wheeled vehicles and the sequester, etc . I think I will probably keep my discussions all within this blog. One, it will keep things together, and one place for me to delete
All the info once I have to sign a NDA!! Lol!

Posted by: Mike Winkler | 12 June 2013 at 11:46

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Accolades

  • Read only the first few pages. The clarity and eloquence of them is highly unusual. Extremely un-boring. Everything that one does not need to know seems to have been removed before publication.
    — Attorney, politician, academic, and strategist
  • I'm continually amazed and impressed with what appears to me to be some magical ability you have to synthesize a tremendous sweep of ideas and sources and to cogently streamline into a tight and, most importantly, readable essay.
    — Test engineer, Naval Air Systems Command
  • One of the most insightful analysts on issues of defense economics...
    — Senior defense industry equities analyst
  • I need a Jim.
    — DC think tank director
  • Simply outstanding.
    — Deputy Under Secretary at the Pentagon, on recent analyses of future force structure requirements
  • You and Aboulafia are the only two publicly-quoted defense consultants worth paying attention to.
    — Public policy advocate
  • You’re one of the few guys who brings me real numbers. Most people just try to blow smoke...
    — President of a major military trucks and armored vehicles manufacturer
  • You are an impressive madman whom I am glad to know.
    — Vice President and M&A practice leader with an aerospace & defense consultancy
  • One of the best strategic moves we could have made, short of starting another war.
    — General Manager, leading weapons manufacturer, regarding recommendations for using the lessons of the campaigns in Afghanistan and Iraq to plan the future of the company’s product lines
  • Exactly what we needed.
    — CEO of a defense buy-out firm, on market insights and financial projections regarding an acquisition target
  • Your ability to infer from open sources is wonderful.
    — Vice President for Corporate Strategy, leading armored vehicles manufacturer, on recent studies of fatality patterns in military vehicles in Afghanistan and Iraq
  • We should have done [this] a year ago, but I could never find someone like you with the right perspective.
    — Vice President for Business Development at a fast-growing manufacturing firm, on recommendations for managing the company’s problematic alliance with a Fortune 500 defense contractor

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