If you have not seen our new paper on the armored vehicle business—The Once and Future Combat System—you can download a copy at our firm’s website. This is the third paper in our series of occasional viewpoints this year on what we expect for the industry in the near future.
We weighed in on this particular topic because after eight years of war in Afghanistan and Iraq, ground forces around the world have at their disposal a potential wealth of lessons to be learned. The emphasis in force structure has shifted to the infantry, and the need for blast-protection in vehicles is essential—across the whole of the force. This might call for more MRAPs, but the demands of the campaign in Afghanistan are showing how a large off-road vehicle is needed. Heavier vehicles might offer greater ballistic protection, but a reasonable chance at stopping large caliber cannon rounds or anti-tank missiles requires a vehicle as massive as a heavy tank.
Thus, we expect that the next generation of troop carriers—and particularly those of the US Army—will likely be wheeled 8x8s, just with v-shaped hulls for robust blast-protection. Designs will likely be sourced from a company with experience in the 8x8 segment; save for General Dynamics, all of these are based outside the US. Those manufacturers are finding American production partners to ensure adequate domestic content and technology insertion. In the long run, though, the builders of these vehicles may not be solely those manufacturers of tracked combat vehicles with lineages in the Cold War. Rather, speciality truck manufacturers are increasingly showing how they have the skills needed for wheeled armored vehicle manufacturing.
Firms planning to compete for business in this environment face a challenging set of strategic questions, for which the answers are not obvious. Management in the armored vehicle industry today requires a whole-of-business approach, involving multiple functions of the enterprise in daily decisions. After all, these are wartime conditions, and the pace of change has picked up.
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