That was Pentagon Comptroller Robert Hale’s preemptive explanation as to why today’s detailed budget release didn’t extend past the pending fiscal year. At once, it’s a breathtaking but unsurprising remark. Any political party assuming power anywhere in the world ought to bring with it a multi-year military procurement plan, but few do. However, as we’ve seen from a long series of Pentagon budgets, only the first two years or so of any spending plan is worth its ink anyway. Thus, no one has cause for alarm.
Indeed, we have today at least the outlines of a plan. The defense secretary still wants 55 littoral combat ships, and a constant (if slightly lagged) supercarrier build rate. The USAF and USMC will get a whole lot of F-35 Lightning II Joint Strike Fighters, and eventually the Navy will as well. Space satellite purchasing is being bridged with existing products because the stretch of the last set of development efforts proved too far. Many more decisions are being put off until the conclusion late this summer of the Quadrennial Defense Review.
The outlines are least clear in the United States for the land forces, the dimensional segment of military power that is most heavily engaged against the Salafists. This is arguably true around the world, because spending plans—when governments actually care about political objectives and the welfare of their troops—must eventually come in line with real battlefield needs. Working from this principle, I had been telling clients since at least 2005 that the US Army’s Future Combat System program—at least the vehicles portion of it—would never cut much metal. Today, the plan for armored vehicles in the US Army and Marine Corps pretty much consists of the MRAP-ATV, the developmental JLTV, and yet another try at the EFV. After that, little is being said, at least by the services. After all, Robert Gates’ scorn for how the FCS manned ground vehicles were to have flat bottoms just eighteen inches off the ground should apply to the EFV and the Army’s huge fleet of Bradley fighting vehicles as well.
Given the evolving threat, it’s no wonder that MRAP vehicles in Iraq get twice the monthly mileage of Bradleys, and that Strykers get twice that again. That’s right: according to the US Congressional Budget Office, Bradleys are driven less than 300 miles, MRAPs about 600 miles, and Strykers about 1200 miles each month in country. The Army’s aging M113s are rarely allowed outside the wire, clocking just 60 miles. Commanders will use the assets that protect their troops best, and as much as they can. That’s why the budget calls for 1,080 MRAP-ATVs just this year, and why some in the congress are calling for yet more.
With numbers like these, smart military suppliers don’t actually need paper plans from governments for planning business. Rather than skating where bureaucrats tell them the puck is going, they can skate where it’s going to be, one way or the other. Shortly, someone will build a prototype of a robustly blast-resistant eight-wheeled armored vehicle, and make a pile of money at it. In the air, General Atomics is already ahead of the game with its jet-powered, stealthy Avenger drone. MQ-9 Reapers are now slated to replace the oldest F-16s and A-10s, and with those folding wings and tailhook, the Avenger could replace something more. Clever producers of sensors and data fusion systems needn’t wait for new platforms to be conceived; urgent requests from the field will ensure that their latest kit gets on helicopters and turboprops that can be ordered, like the MC-12W Liberties, in a single year.
Simply put, new infusions of information technologies and greater uncertainties in military-political planning are shortening the clock cycles of new product development for military suppliers. Political officials can talk airily about how many aircraft carriers a navy will possess in 2040, but the chatter is of no value. What matters for the troops, and for suppliers who care about discounted cash flows, is what will be needed in the next several years. Within that window, there’s reason to plan; after that, it’s anyone’s guess.
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