Could someone bring Norm Augustine up to speed?

In last week’s Aviation Week & Space Technology (“As Augustine Sees It”), Norman Augustine was asked whether his so-called law about increasing platform costs was still the trend. He replied
I hate to say it, but we’re still on that path. We’re headed toward the one-airplane scenario.
Huh? Has Norm been living on the same planet with the rest of us for the past few years? In a string of announcements and commentaries on the fiscal year 2010 budget, Pentagon officials made clear that

1. MQ-9s would be replacing early-model F-16s and A-10s.
2. The F-22 program would be ended in favor of the F-35 program.
3. The F-18E/F program might be wound down early, depending on the results of the pending QDR.

Let’s look at the numbers in each case:

1. According to the USAF’s fact sheet and the price index in the US GPO’s budget guide, those early-model F-16As cost over $18 million in today’s terms. New MQ-9s cost about $10 million. This comparison, however, assumes that someone would replace an F-16A with another F-16A. The price of the UAE’s newest Block 60 F-16Es is a bit unclear, but Flight Global reported in 2007 that the Emirates’ federal government paid Lockheed Martin $3 billion in development costs alone for a fleet of just eight aircraft. Oh, and the MQ-9s have quantumly longer range and endurance.
2. Again according to the USAF, the unit cost of an F-22 is $143 million. The USAF’s 2009 budget had asserted that the long-term present-year unit cost of the F-35A would be about $83 million. That would have to increase wildly to meet what the USAF was paying for F-22s. And note how I write was paying.
3. One the one hand, the Navy will be paying more per airplane in phasing out purchases of F-18E/Fs in favor of more F-35Cs sooner. That said, the Navy won’t be winding up the Super Hornet program to buy a more costly airplane; the F-18C/Ds that they were to replace will probably instead by replaced by drones, whose costs are yet to be determined. For more on what drones cost, see item (1).

I don’t know what numbers Norm has been studying, but he’s sounding a little cranky these days. The last few years have brought a totally different approach to military procurement, and if you’re missing that, you’re missing out on good business.