What the Swedish Army reorganization means for the market

As it was leaked a week ago, Swedish Supreme Commander General Håkan Syrén did indeed make some big recommendations to the government last Friday. The general’s plan, as presented to Defense Minister Stefan Tolgfors, is said to call for

• a reduction in the size of the Swedish Army from 20,000 to 12,500 troops,
• the reorgnization of the Army and the Amphibious Corps’s eleven combat battalions into eight,
• a reduction in the number of operational Leopard 2 (Stridsvagn 122) tanks from 160 to 80, and
• the consolidation of all initial training for the army at a single base.

While it may be easy to dismiss Sweden as a small country that hasn’t fought a major war since 1814, this view would miss Sweden’s role as a bellwether for change in military markets. In particular, a host of impressive-yet-affordable material solutions have originated in Sweden over the past few decades, from all-terrain armored vehicles to multipurpose stealthy warships. As such, developments in Sweden and around the Baltic are worth watching, and this plan suggests at least two longer-term market developments.

Training. The plan almost certainly signals the eventual end of conscription in Sweden, as there is no point in supporting such a small army with a draft, and no time to waste training short-service conscripts who might only possibly volunteer for overseas service. For that matter, there’s almost no point to conscription anywhere, save in a few countries facing acute territorial threats, such as Taiwan and Israel. The Swedish military has traditionally demanded gear that was particularly easy to learn to operate; hopefully, this tendency will not evaporate. However, as a greater proportion of training funds shift from basic to relatively advanced training, training systems providers will have an easier time finding outlets for their more sophisticated products and services.

Armored vehicles. In the mid-1990s, the Swedish Army had 280 Leopard 2s; today, it seems to be aiming to provide each deployable battalion with a company of ten—if they’re needed. As well, there will almost certainly be no replacement for the excellent CV90 infantry fighting vehicles in Swedish service, though there will now be all the more reason to see them upgraded to something approximating the latest Mark III standard. The recently-announced competition this year for new Armored Wheeled Vehicles will likely proceed, simply because they will be so needed on overseas operations, and there are no other pressing needs for new vehicles for the Army. The pattern we have seen for the past several years is thus once again replicated: new wheeled, blast-protected vehicles for, and upgrades only to smaller numbers of existing, heavy tracked vehicles.

Finally, the plan points to one more trend that has been developing since the end of the Cold War, if slowly. It is most notable that Amphibious Corps’s one operational battalion will be retained amongst the eight, but that it will be made available for overseas service. This indicates how the Swedish military plans to specialize: its amphibious forces have a long history in preparing for activities in concert with small combat vessels in littoral environments. That’s a role for which there’s considerable need today, from the Horn of Africa to the Persian Gulf and beyond.